AI Market Predictions

Each edition cross-checks the day's top AI news against live prediction-market prices on Kalshi and Polymarket: which model releases, compute and regulatory outcomes are being repriced, by how much, and where the crowd's expectations are actually shifting.

Latest: October 17, 2026 (17 UTC)

Largest move: Kalshi — "Anthropic market share this week?" surged 428% (18% to 95%) (vs ~24h ago)
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